The reality of AR/VR survival
VR will be big, AR will be bigger (and take longer). But as in most early-stage tech markets, growth will be curved, not straight.
9 July 2016
| Lacey Glave
|
via
Tech Crunch
VR will be big, AR will be bigger (and take longer). But as in most early-stage tech markets, growth will be curved, not straight.
There will be a few billion dollars of revenue this year, a progressive ramp in 2017 and a hoped-for inflection point in 2018 (when AR could deliver that magic combination of hero device, long battery life, cellular capability, strong app ecosystem and telco cross-subsidization).
But AR/VR is still in the first of the four stages of tech market development (hype cycle, facing reality, liftoff, sustainable market). Its installed base, from low-end Cardboard through high-end HoloLens, is unlikely to top 100 million until 2018.
So how can AR/VR startups survive when long-term AR/VR business models won’t have the scale they need to thrive for 18-24 months?
There will be a few billion dollars of revenue this year, a progressive ramp in 2017 and a hoped-for inflection point in 2018 (when AR could deliver that magic combination of hero device, long battery life, cellular capability, strong app ecosystem and telco cross-subsidization).
But AR/VR is still in the first of the four stages of tech market development (hype cycle, facing reality, liftoff, sustainable market). Its installed base, from low-end Cardboard through high-end HoloLens, is unlikely to top 100 million until 2018.
So how can AR/VR startups survive when long-term AR/VR business models won’t have the scale they need to thrive for 18-24 months?
.png)
